As long as the price of gold is above its 150 day moving average (MA), then gold is in a nice smooth uptrend. At the moment that is not that case. For gold to resume this uptrend we must get above the 150-day moving average.
My previous gold post was a bearish outlook on the metal; in this post I decided to look at the actual value of gold intraday, not the ETF, GLD, or IAU.
If there is a bullish case in the charts for gold (it looks 50/50 to me), I have it below:
Right now we are in a symmetrical triangle pattern that can break either to the upside or the down side. The short and intermediate term outlook for gold does not look as bearish as I have shown in my last chart nor does it look bullish. It feels like a big move is coming, but you can't yet determine its direction from the chart. What we have now is gold above its 19-day EMA, which is an absolute must to resume an uptrend. If gold starts a new uptrend I have a target of $1630 (heavy resistance); if it breaks that, watch for a test of the 150-day moving average. An interesting scenario that could be coming within the next week or two is that the 19 and 39 exponential moving averages (EMA) have the possibility of crossing, which, in the past, has signaled huge moves in both directions.
To summarize:
-Gold on this chart doesn't look that bearish; I don't see a solid short thesis and I don't see a good reason to be long either (just based on the chart).
-The symmetrical triangle pattern can break either way.
-Staying above the 19-day EMA is short term bullish for gold.
-A possible crossing of the 19 and 39 EMA represents an accelerated move in either direction, which looks possible within the next week or two.
-Gold is still below its 150 MA which is required to be in a healthy uptrend.
As of this post I am currently long $IAU.
As of this post I am currently long $IAU.