Lucid Motors: Past, Present, Future

Lucid Motors Stock Chart Analysis Technical

I've been a huge fan of Lucid Motors since its parabolic rise back in February. Back then it was known as $CCIV, where it was about to be SPACed.

Soon after the merger was announced the stock crashed hard. At that time I wrote several posts on why I think the stock will rebound huge. In this post, I talked about how the inevitable Lucid Motor bounce will play out. I followed up with an in-depth analysis of parabolic stocks that crash that eventually end up much much higher.

8 months later, the stock has not really bounced and has not gone anywhere. The question is what happened and should we even still expect a bounce? 

Well as I mentioned in my first post, SPACs are kind of the wild wild west at the moment, where curveballs can be thrown. The reason why we did not get a strong bounce following the crash was mostly due to the bad luck of Growth Stocks completely tanking as Cryptocurrency removed the majority of the liquidity in the market. But as of this article, there has been a bounce in most growth stocks to some extent, but not $LCID.

The reason why $LCID has yet to see a bounce is because of two issues both resolving in share float being much higher than anticipated. When the merger was finalized, the number of outstanding shares ended up being much larger than what was anticipated by the Market. As supply and demand is the name of the game with stocks, this resulted in prices going lower rather than higher.

The second issue was due to the allowing of insiders to unleash their shares to the open Market around September 1st, 2021. As a result, the supply has exceeded the demand. However, the good news is, as the massive sell-off occurred due to insiders selling, the stock has likely capitulated. 

Meaning, there the Stock gapped down on heavy volume where the price went below the Lower Bollinger Band. This is highlighted in the chart above, when this happens it's often a sign of a pretty significant bottom. 

At this point it is likely the all-time low for $LCID is in (unless we run into fraud or major logistics issues with the stock). I believe now, if not done so is the time to buy. As you on the tweet below, I doubled my position at $18.

At this point I believe the lows have been put in, now we wait for the bounce. I expect the bounce to play out as I described in this post. I know it's been a rough and hard ride, but in the end, it will pay off.


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